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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. However, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

But this year's field is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division winners fading and recent strugglers rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still